What's Happening
Tomorrow at 2:00 pm Eastern, the Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of its September 15-16 meeting, the one where it raised interest rates for the first time since 2023. The vote was 12-0. Now we get to see what was said in the room before it.
Here's the twist. Since that meeting the economy has shown real cracks. The September jobs report showed only 29,000 new jobs, and Wall Street's bets on another hike in October fell from about 70% to roughly 20%. Tomorrow's minutes will show whether officials still want to keep going despite that weakness.
Key Facts
- Minutes release: Wednesday, October 7, 2026, 2:00 pm ET (21:00 Moscow time).
- September decision: +0.25 percentage points to a 3.75%-4.00% range, the first hike since 2023, unanimous 12-0.
- Core PCE inflation has stayed above 3% every month of 2026, with August at 3.0%.
- The Fed's median forecast: one more hike in 2026 and no rate cuts until 2028.
- Next rate decision: October 27-28, 2026.
Why It Matters
Rates set by the Fed flow into mortgages, credit cards, car loans and savings accounts. If the minutes show officials ready to hike again, borrowing stays expensive well into 2027 and markets from stocks to Bitcoin can wobble. Savers win, borrowers lose. If they show worry about jobs, it's the first sign the hiking may end soon.
FAQ
Will my mortgage or credit-card rate change tomorrow?
No. The minutes don't change any rates. But they move expectations, and banks and mortgage lenders price off expectations. If the tone is tough, borrowing costs could edge up in the days that follow.
