Verdict
"September's oil recovery is stalling. As long as attacks keep rising, the market can't treat Hormuz supply as back to normal."
GEO HIGHLIGHTS
- 12 vessels reported attacks between October 5 and 11, 2026, the highest weekly count to the UK's UKMTO agency since the US-Israeli war with Iran began.
- Six ships were hit on Sunday, October 11, a one-day record; four more attacks were reported in the following days.
- About 12.6 million barrels per day passed through the strait on October 13, down from 15 million at the end of September and about 17 million before the war (Kpler).
- US Navy data shows assisted transits in the first 10 days of October were up 85% versus the same period in August.
In September, oil shipments through Hormuz were recovering toward pre-war levels. Most Gulf oil moved through a "shuttle" system: tankers load up, run through the strait along Oman's coast under US protection, and transfer cargo to bigger ships in the Gulf of Oman.
Iran calls that route "unauthorised" and has answered with more strikes, according to BBC Verify's analysis of UKMTO data. Iranian exports themselves have stopped completely because of the US blockade of Iranian ports and ships.
Iran calls that route "unauthorised" and has answered with more strikes, according to BBC Verify's analysis of UKMTO data. Iranian exports themselves have stopped completely because of the US blockade of Iranian ports and ships.
Reality Check
For markets, the key number is the gap between 12.6 million and 17 million barrels a day. That missing supply is why energy prices and inflation expectations stay high, and it feeds straight into bond markets. On Friday the US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.07%, after briefly touching 5.13%.The attacks are also spreading. A tanker was struck north of Qatar, more than 500 km from the strait, and the Petro Dolphin was hit by a drone near Oman's Sohar Anchorage, over 250 km away. The container ship GFS Pride sank in the strait on Tuesday; its 21 crew were evacuated. Martin Kelly of Orbital Risk Intelligence says Iran is now carrying out "near daily or multiple attacks every single day" to deter traffic.
US Central Command says commercial traffic keeps flowing with coordinated protection. That's true, but the volume is moving the wrong way, and insurance and freight costs tend to follow risk, not reassurances.
💀 Critical Risks
- A larger escalation could cut flows well below current levels.
- Higher shipping insurance and freight costs can keep fuel prices high even if volumes hold.
- UKMTO-based counts are approximate, since some reports use attack dates and others reporting dates.
FAQ: Is oil still getting through the Strait of Hormuz?
Yes, but less of it. Kpler data shows about 12.6 million barrels a day on October 13, down from 15 million in late September and about 17 million before the war.
