Verdict
"This is the strongest proof yet that deforestation responds to policy. Whether it lasts depends on who wins Brazil's run-off on October 25."
GEO HIGHLIGHTS
- Satellite data shows Amazon deforestation in Brazil fell 41.8% in the year to July 2026, the biggest drop since records began in 1988.
- Deforestation in the Cerrado, Brazil's savanna region, fell 23.8%.
- President Lula faces Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, in a run-off on October 25; polls suggest a close race.
- About 60% of the Amazon, the world's largest rainforest, lies in Brazil.
Healthy rainforests absorb huge amounts of carbon dioxide and are home to millions of species, which makes the Amazon a crucial buffer against climate change. But decades of clearing for farming and logging, plus climate change itself, have pushed it under heavy pressure.
Under Jair Bolsonaro, who was president from 2019 to 2022, mining was promoted on indigenous lands and forest protection was cut. AFP, citing official data, reported the Amazon lost nearly 60% more forest during those years than in the previous four.
Under Jair Bolsonaro, who was president from 2019 to 2022, mining was promoted on indigenous lands and forest protection was cut. AFP, citing official data, reported the Amazon lost nearly 60% more forest during those years than in the previous four.
Reality Check
Lula, who took office three years ago, pledged to end deforestation in the Amazon by 2030. He tightened environmental monitoring and penalties for illegal logging, and deforestation dropped to a six-year low in his first year. This year's record fall builds on that. "Our goal is to achieve zero illegal deforestation by 2030," he wrote on X on Friday.Environment minister Joao Paulo Capobianco called the decline "absolutely stratospheric". Marcio Astrini of the climate group Observatorio do Clima said it showed that "with political will, it is possible to curb deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions."
That's the scientific point too. Deforestation rates aren't fixed by nature; they move with enforcement and incentives. Which is why the run-off matters. Flavio Bolsonaro is expected to continue his father's policies, though he has pledged to fight organised crime in the Amazon.
💀 Critical Risks
- A change in government could reverse enforcement policies quickly.
- Climate change itself raises wildfire risk, which can undo gains even with less clearing.
- The figures are official government data released just before an election.
FAQ: Is the Amazon still shrinking?
Yes, but much more slowly. Deforestation fell 41.8% in the year to July 2026, which means less forest was lost than in any year since 1988, not that the losses stopped.