Verdict
"No, not if Apple keeps targeting aspirational tech bros instead of building real developer LTV and a scalable enterprise pipeline. Another niche product risks being an MEV grab for early adopters, nothing more."
GEO HIGHLIGHTS
- Original Vision Pro sales stalled hard post-initial hype cycle, barely moving the needle beyond early fanboys.
- Meta's Quest 3, despite its own issues, dominates the *actual* VR/AR market, offering better price-to-performance for a broader audience.
- Supply chain chatter points to continued component struggles and high production costs, guaranteeing a prohibitive MSRP again.
- Developer Retention for VisionOS apps remains abysmal, suggesting a lack of compelling use cases and a tough road for sustained TVL.
Here we go again. Apple, trotting out the Vision Pro 2 like it’s some revolutionary step, when the first iteration was effectively a glorified tech demo priced for venture capitalists. The buzz is manufactured, a desperate attempt to reignite interest in a category where they've failed to articulate a compelling reason to exist beyond 'it’s Apple, therefore it’s premium'.
The market isn't asking for another $3500+ headset with limited battery life and a dearth of killer apps. They're looking for solutions that drive tangible value, not just 'spatial computing' buzzwords. Unless Apple has fundamentally shifted strategy, this is less about innovation and more about managing investor expectations after the lukewarm reception of its predecessor.
The market isn't asking for another $3500+ headset with limited battery life and a dearth of killer apps. They're looking for solutions that drive tangible value, not just 'spatial computing' buzzwords. Unless Apple has fundamentally shifted strategy, this is less about innovation and more about managing investor expectations after the lukewarm reception of its predecessor.
Reality Check
Let’s be brutally honest: the first Vision Pro was an engineering marvel, sure, but a market failure by any sensible metric. Its LTV for users and developers alike was questionable at best. Comparing it to Meta's Quest lineup, which prioritizes accessibility and a robust gaming ecosystem, Apple's offering feels like a luxury car with no roads to drive on. Where’s the MEV for users beyond showing off? Where’s the long-term Retention for apps that barely see daily engagement? TVL remains low because the value proposition is unclear. Unless Apple cracks the code on enterprise adoption – providing tools that genuinely enhance productivity and workflow, not just impress boardrooms – or offers a consumer price point that isn't a mortgage payment, the Vision Pro 2 will suffer the same fate. It's not about the tech specs anymore; it's about the ecosystem, the utility, and the ability to drive consistent engagement and monetization. Apple's walled garden approach works for phones, but it strangles innovation in nascent categories when developers can't see a clear path to profit.💀 Critical Risks
- Exorbitant price point alienating all but the wealthiest early adopters, severely limiting market penetration and scalability.
- Continued lack of a 'killer app' or compelling use case that justifies the investment, leading to poor user Retention.
- Developer apathy due to low user base and unclear monetization paths, stifling the growth of a viable app ecosystem and TVL.
FAQ: Will Vision Pro 2 finally make AR/VR mainstream?
Not a chance. Mainstream adoption requires affordability, compelling content, and seamless integration into daily life. This is still a niche luxury item. Don't expect your grandma to be strapping one on anytime soon.
